Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Aceh Province: Can We Actually Overcome Those Numbers?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29103/e-mabis.v23i2.864Keywords:
Pengangguran, Prediksi, ARIMAAbstract
Studi ini mengkaji kondisi pengangguran dan memprediksi kondisi pengangguran di masa depan di Provinsi Aceh. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis keadaan pengangguran di Provinsi Aceh dari tahun 1990 hingga 2019 dan memperkirakan gambaran pengangguran di Aceh dalam sepuluh tahun ke depan (2020 hingga 2030). Data dalam penelitian ini adalah data pengangguran Provinsi Aceh tahun 1990-2019. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa jumlah pengangguran di Aceh pada tahun 2030 berjumlah 69.649 orang. Jumlah ini turun rata-rata 6,91%, namun angka pengangguran di perkotaan dan lulusan Diploma dan Sarjana meningkat. Hal ini menyarankan pembuat kebijakan, institusi pendidikan dan pemangku kepentingan terkait lainnya untuk mengidentifikasi akar penyebabnya, misalnya mereka harus mendorong perguruan tinggi untuk terus mengevaluasi kurikulumnya atau meningkatkan program terkait yang meningkatkan keterampilan seperti pelatihan profesional khusus atau kejuruan. Menjadi catatan penting bagi pemerintah Aceh untuk memperhatikan penyerapan tenaga kerja bagi masyarakat yang berpendidikan tinggi untuk mewujudkan pemerataan kesejahteraan masyarakat di Provinsi Aceh.References
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